The global economy is in reasonably good shape entering the final months of an eventful 2017. With economic output expected to grow by 3.6% this year and accelerate modestly in 2018, Mark Seavers, CIO Davy Asset Management, looks at what we can expect for the rest of the year.
Global equities delivered 8.6% in local currency terms in the first six months of the year – the strength of the euro translated that impressive underlying return into just 2.7% for euro-based investors. After an eventful first half in financial markets, what do the next six months have in store for investors?
Chief Investment Officer Mark Seavers discusses the impact of the first-round results. With two contenders of drastically opposing views remaining, he gives his view on how things may play out.
Reality bites for President Trump and his new administration. Chief Investment Officer Mark Seavers gives his view of the president's first few months in office.
Do you know your PVV from your VVD? Of course you do! One is the Party for Freedom, while the other is the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy. And, at the risk of turning this into a Monty Python sketch, it’s time to turn our attention to our European neighbours as the Dutch go to the polls on Wednesday, kicking off a European election cycle that has been a source of concern to investors and the powers that be on the continent in recent months.
Global equities have risen by 13.7% since the election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States last November. Naturally, Trump couldn’t resist reminding the world of this fact as he addressed Congress.
In a year of astonishing surprises, November 2016 delivered perhaps the biggest: a Donald Trump victory in the US presidential election, followed by rallies in the dollar and global equity markets.
"Long-run prosperity was never in the gift of monetary policy makers. Consensus is growing that escaping this low-growth low-inflation trap will require a re-balancing between monetary, fiscal and structural policies." Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, 22nd September 2016.
Equity markets continued their rollercoaster journey for investors in the second quarter of 2016 with the shock UK referendum result punctuating the quarter end. In the first half of 2016, the MSCI World Index had been particularly volatile, falling 5.0% in the first quarter, before rebounding by 3.6% in the second. It is now only off -1.6% year-to-date, in euro terms. This masks a dramatic 15.3% fall between January and February, which was subsequently offset by a deep value rally of 17.3% from February to the end of May.
The first quarter of 2016 was a volatile start to the year, with January being one of the worst starts to a year on record. While we view the low trajectory of global growth as a continued concern for markets going forward, we can draw some comfort from the fact that many of the risks which flared up in the first quarter are relatively discreet.